As the 2023 election draws closer, as a Political Scientist, without sentiment, prejudice or bias mind, it became imperative to relay what I observed about the Guber Candidates in Ebonyi State going by opinions, indicating their challenges and chances of winning the poll.
However, this discourse will focus on 4 major Frontline Gubernatorial Candidates in the State because they are the ones who are close to winning the poll.
Among those jostling for the post of Governor in Ebonyi State, all are qualified by the virtue of Nigeria Constitution but the most competent and well-prepared candidate who has proven to understand the plights of Ebonyians and has in-depth knowledge of the realities in the system according to popular opinion is Prof Bernard Ifeanyi Odoh. He has always analysed the realities in the State and made recommendations on what should be done to surmount them. Odoh surfaced in Ebonyi politics in 2015 when he contested for a Senatorial post under APGA but lost to Senator Obinna Joseph Ogba. Subsequently, he was appointed Secretary to the State Government where he abdicated and later contested for the APC Guber primary in 2019 but lost to Senator Sonnie Ogborji. He is loved by his people and those who have worked with him directly always attest that he is near perfection. He doesn't violently encourage thuggery nor approach politics with bitterness. He was a thoroughbred lecturer at UniZik before joining Politics with intimidating Academic records.
Challenges:
An unbiased observation is that Prof Odoh is only facing a singular problem. Many are having fear that if Ezza man becomes the Governor at this point, the Effium war, and the Ezza-Ezillo war, among others will resonate. Many are having fear that if Ezza man becomes Governor, he would influence Ezza man in Ohaukwu, Ezza man in Ishielu, Ezza man in Onicha, Ezza man in Ebonyi LG, Ezza man in other places as LG Chairmen of the aforementioned areas and take dominance over others. Many are having fear that if Ezza man becomes the Governor presently, Ezza will dominate major political positions in the Local Government Areas and State level owing to their population. Many are yet to agree that if Ezza man becomes the Governor, his brothers will not overwhelm him and leverage the opportunity to retaliate issues they had with other tribes bothering land disputes. These and more possess threats to Prof Bernard Ifeanyi Odoh's ambition but he is loved based on credibility. Secondly, some have this political belief that power should be rotational in the State concerning the undocumented Charter of Equity which has raised dust in the State over the recent time. Many are strongly supporting power to return to Ebonyi North come 2023 to engender equity, fairness and justice. This doesn't imply that Ezza's are virtually violent as people insinuate, but the stereotype is already there.
Chances:
Tribe influences Nigerian politics and Ebonyi is not exceptional. Odoh is from a strong tribe in the State and he is loved by many due to his antecedents, disposition, pedigree, temperament and blueprint for the State. Ezzas are found in almost all the Local Government Areas in the State and if they should rally around him wholesomely coupled with support from other areas, he would make headway in his campaign. Odoh is loved by the majority because of his credibility, character and antecedents. His running mate is an experienced and accomplished medical practitioner who hails from Okposi where men with financial wherewithal dominate. Okposi people alleged that the present Government didn't favour them. With this golden opportunity given to their son, it's most likely that they will support APGA with their financial chest. Also, the Ebonyi Central Senatorial Candidate of APGA commands respect in Ikwo Local Government Area and will influence votes for Odoh since most of the Ikwo indigenous people allegedly threatened to vote for the APC candidate. Afikpo will give support to Prof Odoh support because of the Ebonyi South APGA Senatorial Candidate. Similarly, the attack on the billboards of Odoh is giving him sympathy and support. Ebonyians who don't play clannish politics but want a credible person with a human face shall cast their vote for Prof Ben Odoh.
Rt Hon Francis Ogbonnaya Nwifuru is said to be a cheerful giver and has a penchant for human development. Notwithstanding, his shortcomings, he has empowered many close to him and offered scholarships to some Students through his Onwa Oferekpe Foundation including those he paid and still pays their School fees. He is a principled man and doesn't tolerate nonsense acts. Even when some will still disagree, he is loved in Izzi majorly due to his benevolence act and commands more respect presently in Izzi than anyone else. Nwifuru came to politics in 2011 through the help of Arc. Edward Nkwegu who allegedly sponsored him against Rt Hon Augustine Nwankwegu, the former Speaker of Ebonyi State House of Assembly. He is serving his third term bid and held the speakership position since 2015 till date. With his stay in the State House of Assembly, he has leadership experience.
Challenges:
Due to the way and manner the present Governor handled Ebonyians with his policies and actions that are innocuous to Ebonyians, many are against him because Umahi endorsed him. Some Ebonyians believe that he is Umahi in disguise. They simply assert that his candidacy is the second coming of Umahi. Some nicknamed him "Umahi's Promax." Many have this fear that if he wins, they will not do better than their Master and Umahi will be dictating for them. Traders who are in excruciating pain over taxation, Civil Servants who are in penury and retirees whose entitlements are yet to be paid may not see him as the best option fact that is part of the system that halted their happiness and increased their Blood Pressure, BP.
Secondly, for the fact that he is the Speaker of the House of Assembly and kept silent while many things went wrong in the State, he is seen as not being capable of governing the State to the taste of Ebonyians who are yearning for people-oriented Government, unlike the present.
Thirdly, some of the aggrieved persons in APC, especially the camp of Engr Elias Mbam among others may not consider working with him in the forthcoming election. The official statement made by Elias Mbam while addressing his supporters on 9th October; 2020 at Ely's Centre is a clear pointer that his group may be more APC at the National than at the State level. Again; the kindred dichotomy in Izzi land and the crisis that occurred between Izzi and Ikwo people previously will scratch his chances to an extent. Additionally; he is alleged to be brutal with an unhealthy temperament and doesn't tolerate criticism or opposition. His supporters are allegedly threatening brimstone on social media against those who would think of opposing their principal. Another five persons from Izzi are contesting for Governorship positions and this will help divide their votes thereby jettisoning the chances of Nwifuru taking titanic votes in Izzi. Lastly, The State Governor is not behaving like someone who is pregnant and wants to beget another child. The staff of Ebonyi State University and other tertiary institutions owned by the state are gnashing their teeth. Some of them are yet to receive their August and September salaries. Some political appointees are not happy with the system. Civil Servants in the respective MDAs, Teachers among others are not happy. The Governor is yet to release a list of successful persons that applied for jobs months ago and possibly offered them jobs to fill the vacuum in different MDAs. He is visibly demarketing Nwifuru through his actions even when the election is around the corner, hence making the race too cumbersome for him. Above all, many Ebonyians don't wish to have Nwifuru as their Governor considering the issues surrounding him.
Chances:
APC is no doubt the ruling party in the State with a structure spanning 13 Local Government Areas, 64 Development Centres, and 171 Electoral wards. The Local Government Chairmen, Development Centre Coordinators, Ward Councilors, Traditional Rulers, Town Union Presidents, Party Excos etc are the structures that APC have and will work for the victory of the system they are benefiting from.
Secondly, those who believe strongly in equity will no doubt work to ensure that Nwifuru emerges against all odds. Not minding his shortcomings, many are not willing to support anyone outside Ebonyi North to become the next Governor of Ebonyi State. Even some elements in PDP due to what played out in the party are secretly drumming support for Nwifuru to win. With the State force coupled with other influences, Nwifuru has a chance of winning the Guber poll come 2023.
ARC EDWARD OKEREKE NKWEGU -Labour Party
Arc Edward Nkwegu is a known industrialist in the State with an intimidating financial chest. He is very famous, exposed, polished, highly educated, experienced in the business sector and a humanitarian who has touched lives positively through his Regina Pacis Foundation. He had contested for Governor in 2015 under Labour Party in which he lost to Engr Dave Nweze Umahi. He again contested for the APC Guber primary in 2018 and lost to Senator Sonnie Ogborji. He was among those that slugged it out with Nwifuru in the recent APC Primary. Arc. Edward Nkwegu is a devoted Christian and a member of the knighthood of Knight of Saint John. He doesn't discriminate. He is humble, and charitable and doesn't play politics of bitterness, rancour and acrimony. EDON possesses the indices of the Governor judging by his disposition.
Challenges:
Edward Nkwegu contested for the APC Guber primary in 2022 and lost to his godson, Rt Hon Francis Ogbonnaya Nwifuru in a keenly contested but alleged biased primary election. His sojourn to Labour Party is viewed as collusion to stampede Engr Fidelis Nwankwo from getting a party ticket after he lost in PDP Primary election. Observation shows that Engr Fidelis Nwankwo made an effort to fly the Labour Party ticket in agreement with the alleged Standard-bearer of the Labour Party, Eze Oko Splendor before EDON surfaced and arm-twisted the pendulum. In my own opinion and observation which may be factual or fallacy, EDON appears most likely to be playing the script of FON and Umahi. He might not be contesting in the actual sense but came to block his brother who's adjudged to be a good man and enjoys strong support in the State due to his antecedent disposition and meekness. Edward Nkwegu is the political godfather of the APC Gubernatorial candidate, Rt Hon Francis Ogbonnaya Nwifuru. He single-handedly brought him to the political limelight in 2011 and snowballed Rt Hon Augustine Nwankwo to oblivion. Though godfather and godson can fall apart in a political setting the possibility that Edward will be contesting against his godson in an actual sense this time around is not yet known until proven otherwise.
Secondly, EDON has been in the race for Governor for a very long time. Some adduced that he is not conversant with the workings of politics and worst of all has the trait of stinginess in his vein. Lastly, he still has a pending court case against his candidature which may be in his favour or against him.
Chances:
The chances of Edward Nkwegu winning the 2023 Guber election is narrow. He will have soft ground to sail if the Plethora of court cases against Nwifuru as instituted by Senator Ali Ucha and PDP makes headway. If the case turns out to be against Nwifuru and there are now possibly legal ways to dwarf it, he may likely pitch tent with his boss and bloodline, Arc Edward Nkwegu. EDON is already a household name in Ebonyi State politics. He has structures already, more presentable and more acceptable as a Guber candidate from Izzi. The traditional prime minister of the Izzi clan His Royal Majesty, Elder Mbam Ngele has along with the elders of the land blessed Nkwegu, a symbolic sacrifice that is considered the greatest in the land. Other greater stakeholders including labour unions, religion leaders and former governors are strongly behind Nkwegu.
The energetic young man who has brought a change in the politics of Ebonyi State is a cerebral and accomplished business mogul who has used his wealth to touch lives in positive ways within and outside the State. He is polished, meek, doesn't discriminate, very accessible, accommodating, easy-going and highly exposed with vast experience such that if he is elected, he will no doubt industrialize the State and bring his business partners to invest in the State. Anyichuks as he is fondly called never occupied any political position but yet, he commands respect and has a chain of supporters across the length and breadth of Ebonyi and outside the shore of the State. His human empowerment program is top-notch. His penchant to uplift mankind and solve the needs of Society speaks volumes. Among the contenders of Ebonyi Guber's race, he is arguably the richest. He is competent and charismatic. He is presentable and possesses the indices of a Governorship position.
Challenges:
The challenge before Anyichuks is that he is from the same Zone that the present Governor is from. Many are not in support that power should return to Ebonyi South come 2023 since the Zone has their shot in 2015 and 2019. Such would bridge the harmonious relationship existing in the State and thwart equity, justice and fairness. Another challenge before Anyichuks is the unhealthy relationship among the political players in PDP. The court case between him and Senator Obinna Joseph Ogba among other things especially what happened during the party convention which produced two contending Chairmen that are still at loggerheads and that of factional party primaries has posed a great setback to PDP in the State. The party is polarized and possible ways of bringing all the factions and aggrieved persons together may not see the light of day. Some of the party juggernauts have left the party for another party in the drive to realize their ambition. Lastly, the pending court case between him and Senator Obinna Joseph Ogba is what no one can predict what would be the possible outcome and if it turns negatively, he will be out of the race with his group. However, the probability of the case being against him is zero unless proven otherwise.
Chances:
Anyichuks is loved by all. He never holds sway in any political position before now. He is just a new person with a new idea to change the status quo. He is financially buoyant and has friends who are buoyant too and committed to ensuring that he succeeds in becoming the next Governor of the State. He is not violent. He is not wicked. He is an open-minded person and wears a human face. He is already rich and may not plunder the treasury of the State. His temperament, carriage, and disposition are unique. With the level of hunger in the State, he can buy his way. With the way people fear Umahi's candidate and complain about his temperament and attitude toward his fans, many will keep their tribe and zone aside and vote for a competent, experienced and tolerant person. Aside from the fact that Anyichuks is from the same Zone as the present Governor, there is nothing absolutely that could be used against him by any sound mind person. Above all, his brothers from the South, especially those from the Old Ohaozara bloc will throw their weight behind him and throw the party logo away having seen that he has the wherewithal to win. Above all, many admire him and wish he becomes the fourth Governor of the State to right the wrongs.
Others are vying for the post of Governorship but these four persons are the Frontline contenders. I didn't bring the picture of Engr Chukwuma Nwandugo here, but for records purposes, he is a saleable candidate and the best Izzians should have unanimously present.
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However, while the game is on, it's important to note that politics is in a state of flux. Implicitly, politics is dynamic. The person that may win the poll come 2023 may end up not being the Governor judging from what happened in Imo State etc. Ebonyians are left with many options to choose from but must not make any mistake of electing someone that will worsen the situation in the State.
©Martin Chinonso Nwede is a Political Analyst, at nwedechinonsom@gmail.com.
