Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector is entering uncharted territory as the Dangote Refinery sets August 15, 2025, for nationwide distribution of premium motor spirit (PMS) and diesel.
This development is not just a commercial milestone—it has ignited widespread fear and deep uncertainty among petroleum product marketers and fuel retailers, many of whom view the move as the start of a monopolistic grip on the industry.
Over the weekend, the Dangote Group revealed plans to bypass existing petroleum marketers and deploy 4,000 Compressed Natural Gas trucks to directly supply petrol to major consumers at zero distribution cost. On the surface, this appears like an efficiency move. But industry stakeholders are sounding the alarm, warning that what’s unfolding is a seismic shift with the potential to collapse traditional supply chains, eliminate competition, and put Nigeria’s fuel economy under the control of a single corporate entity.
Billy Gillis-Harry, National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), did not mince words. He warned that Dangote’s aggressive forward integration strategy essentially cutting out middlemen and centralizing supply could spell disaster for independent marketers, depot owners, and ultimately, everyday Nigerians.
“The bigger implication is the tendency for Dangote Refinery to monopolise the industry,” Gillis-Harry told NATIONAL PANEL reporter. “That’s risky for 250 million Nigerians. Once one company controls the supply chain, price manipulation becomes inevitable. Job losses will follow. Billions in investments could go up in smoke.”
Gillis-Harry’s comments reflect growing anxiety within major stakeholders’ groups including DAPPMAN (Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria), MEMAN (Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria), and NOGASA (Natural Oil and Gas Suppliers Association of Nigeria). These groups, traditionally pivotal in fuel distribution, fear being rendered obsolete.
Contrastingly, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) offered a more optimistic outlook. Spokesperson Chinedu Ukadike told Daily Post that Dangote’s entrance into distribution is "a welcomed development" and should not necessarily be seen as a threat.
“Dangote said he is not in the business of retailing,” Ukadike noted. “We are still strong and reliable in the downstream sector. Some filling stations that were previously excluded from fuel supply will now have access.”
Yet even amid these divergent views, one thing is clear: Dangote Refinery’s next moves will significantly reshape Nigeria’s fuel landscape. The stakes are high. With retail petrol prices already hovering between ₦875 and ₦910 per litre despite rising global oil prices, consumers remain vulnerable to supply shocks or price inflation especially if a single player becomes the gatekeeper of distribution.
Earlier reports this week hinted at mounting job losses and possible closures of smaller filling stations due to fears of marginalization. And while Dangote’s promise of nationwide fuel availability sounds progressive, critics argue that no market thrives under a monopoly, however efficient it may appear.
As August draws near, the Nigerian government faces increasing pressure to either rein in the potential for market dominance or risk enabling a fuel regime where pricing, access, and supply rest in the hands of one private empire.
What may appear to be an industrial breakthrough could just as easily become an economic flashpoint. If unchecked, Dangote Refinery’s dominance could dismantle the fragile balance in Nigeria’s downstream sector—trading one inefficiency for another, only this time, with far fewer players and far greater consequences.
