It is seven months to the day Nigerians will go to the poll to elect the next president of Nigeria that will take over from Muhammadu Buhari upon the conclusion of his two terms of eight years in office.
Though about twelve political parties and their candidates are billed to stand for the election, four among them are believed to be the main contenders for the contest as ongoing conversation suggested among them are; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party, Messr Peter Obi of Labour Party and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party.
In this article, I'll be analyzing each of these candidates viz-a-viz their political parties and their chances of victory. I shall be classify these candidates into two strands for record purpose and in furtherance of scholarship; Contenders and Pretenders based on existing political reality, robust political discussion and trending frenzy.
*THE CONTENDERS*
1) *Alhaji Atiku Abubakar - Peoples Democratic Party PDP*
The Wazirin Adamawa and candidate of the major opposition party, which prides itself as the biggest political party in Africa, is a big and households name in Nigeria politics. Atiku was elected as the Vice President of Nigeria in 1999 on a joint ticket with General Olusegun Obasanjo.
Prior to his ascension as Vice President, Atiku overwhelmingly won the gubernatorial seat of Adamawa state in 1998 but the mandate was inherited by Mr Boni Haruna, his runningmate, after he opted to run on the Obasanjo/Atiku presidential ticket.
Atiku is known as one of political leader that commands wide network across the entire geopolitical zone in Nigeria. This is due to the political capital he is enjoying from his time as a presidential aspirant of the Social Democratic Party in the third republic, a founding leader of PDP, a vice president of Nigeria, co-founding leader/national leader of Action Congress of Nigeria (now defunct) and a key stakeholder in the APC that defeated the then PDP government of Jonathan.
More interesting is his business network and investments that transcends the entire country. He boasts of large financial war chest and has prosecuted four presidential campaigns prior to this time as a serial contestant.
His party, PDP, has deep rooted structure down to polling units that resonates in the minds of the average Nigerian since 1999. In fact, at the mention of PDP, the average Nigerian shouts Power. The PDP equally holds the record as the longest serving party at the centre.
Moreso, Atiku and his Party, PDP, is popular in the entire geopolitical zones and will go into the election with the Northeast where Atiku hails from, alongside Southsouth and Southeast where its dominance is undisputed. The frustration of people of Northwest over the bandtry/insurgency absence of Muhammadu Buhari in the contest has clearly opened up the zone for Atiku to take. This statement is truer when you factor that the Northwest traditionally vote for their kinsman during presidential elections. Northcentral states such as FCT, Nasarawa and Benue are expected to easily go to Atiku, while he's expected to battle Asiwaju Tinubu for the votes of Kogi, Benue and Niger States. Atiku is equally expected to put up a fight with Tinubu in the southwest where he (Tinubu) largely holds forth and grip.
2) *Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu* - All Progressives Congress
Being the candidate of the ruling party, the former Lagos State Governor has dominated the politics of the state since 1999 as a master strategist who save Nigeria from the doom of One party system in 2003 along with Dr Onu, O (ANPP).
His has built political investments in the last twenty years spanning from his days as the founding leader of Action Congress (now defunct) which later merged with other parties to form APC, and will carry his robust goodwill to the ballot as hero democracy by surviving the military onslaught of the aborted and truncated third republic.
Popularly known as the Jagaban of Borgu, Asiwaju as he is fondly called is no pushover in the 2023 presidential race and he has added advantage as the candidate of the ruling party with all the paraphernalia attached as he will consolidate and build on the good will of PMB and enjoy the usual Buhari hegemony and hurricane across the APC strong hold with over 67% of 174,000 PUs, 8400 wards, 940 state constituencies, 774 LGs, 360 federal constituencies, 109 senatorial districts, 36 States.
Aside incumbency, he has the financial resources to prosecute his campaigns which will be backed by a deep rooted structure that is loyal to him as a result of his over two decades investment in politics especially in the southwest where he is seen as the political symbol of the zone by his admirers and opponents alike.
In the 2023 election, the southwest, Borno and Yobe states are places Tinubu is expected to wrap his block votes while he will put up a fight in the Northwest, Northcentral and parts of Southsouth and a definite mark in South East - thanks to the structure of APC in these areas.
*THE PRETENDERS*
1) *Messr Peter Obi - Labour Party*
Obi is a former two term governor of Anambra state that is famous for not giving 'shishi'. He moved to the Labour Party after his withdrawal from the 2022 Presidential primary of PDP and switched camp to LP where he was appointed as presidential candidate. Political observers believe that Obi never stood a chance in winning the ticket of PDP due to his lack of structure in the party.
Since his switch, Obi has been enjoying the support of a section of youths on social media, particularly those from southeast and members of christened 'Obidient' movement, his supporters have christened themselves to be 'Obidient'.
Unlike Atiku and Tinubu, Obi will go into the 2023 contest without a stronghold to his grip in any state of the 36 states of the federation. This is largely due to the fact that his LP is a fringe party in today's Nigeria reality which cannot pinpoint any major conquest in the last two electoral season across the Federation.
In the July Osun State gubernatorial election, LP which fielded a former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Sulaimon Yusuff, polled less than 2500 votes in the entire 30 LGAs, and scored less than 50 votes in most LGAs.
In Anambra where Obi hails from, the political system is largely controlled by PDP and APGA. Obi's plight is complicated with the fact that he hasn't been able to win his local government in any of the State's gubernatorial election for his choice candidate since leaving office under PDP.
His runningmate, Datti Baba Ahmed, is not considered as a formidable politician in Zaria area of Kaduna State that can cause major electoral upset, while the LP presence in the state is almost non-existing. Though members of Obidient Movement argue that "they are the structure", the reality of politics is that social media play limited if not non-existent influence in electoral direction for any candidate on a political party that lacks the grassroot structure even in advanced countries.
2) *Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso- New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP*
The former two time governor of Kano state is deep rooted in the politics of Kano; where he is battling for supremacy with his longterm political rival, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, and Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. Kwankwaso prides himself as the natural heir to Mallam Aminu Kano with his Kwankwasiyya Ideology and symbolic red cap similar to that of the late respected Mallam.
In the 2023 contest, Kwankwaso is expected to battle for the soul of Kano with Atiku Abubakar of PDP. Asiwaju Tinubu of APC is equally expected to drag with the duo due to the incumbency of APC in the state. Aside Kano State, Kwankwaso and his NNPP are projected to play the underdog behind PDP and APC in other states of the country. Worse still, the NNPP cannot boast of any structure across the country except Kano.
*Discourse/ pull and push factors*
Politics is discussion dont come and say people are worried because how can people be worried over Structureless and strong hold less party?
Anybody who know politics know that these people will ask their supporters to vote for the party because they are either coming back or bringing people and all the campaigns are at same time.
8,740 Councillors, 774 LGAs 360 House of Reps
109 Senators,
36 Governors.
Hundreds of thousands of people live from their office because they employ people, help family and help villages and Labour Party own none of these and you say wetin??
Councillor, Assembly members, Reps members, Senators, Governors all with their supporters with so many people.
Are either coming back or supporting their party candidates.
PDP and APC don share am finish
No one Obi and Kwakwaso get and you say win wetin??
You think say Presidential Election na councillorship elections?
Don't you know that all these political offices and their millions of people live from there and you say wetin.
think now? Ehn?
Osun Election, Labour Party and NNPP contested too.
Why dem no win?
All PDP Governors and section of APC joined forces to allow Adeleke win.
Think now?
Even one state Obi will not win.
PDP and APC have Youths and elders too but Obi have no Governor and his cartel.
*Conclusively, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are the only obstacle to each other's presidential ambition. The best Obi and Kwankwaso can do is to make and put strong statements at the poll but their impact will be almost to nothing*.
Ezaka, ICC a political analyst who write from University of Nigeria.
